I’ve been meaning to commit my predictions to the ether for the last few UFCs, but this is the first time I’ve managed to do it. I think this is largely because the UFC FINALL-FUCKING-LY has a decent web-based pay-per-view system. It’s really great; the adaptive quality claims to support up to 3000Kbps and on my typical Japanese fiber line it looks great—as good or better than the bootleg 720p PPV rips that one might find out there on the interweb tubes.
The UFC’s new system means that I can reliably watch the bouts LIVE (for $20, which feels a lot more reasonable than $50), whereas before I was always having to somehow procure a decent copy of the event after the fact, meaning that the matches had actually already happened by the time I got around to thinking about who would win, at which point ‘predicting’ them seemed pretty stupid, even if I knew not the outcome.
So without further ado:
Alistair Overeem will beat Brock Lesnar
Overeem will dominate Lesnar, exposing him for what he actually is: a massive, ultra-athletic monster of a human specimen — but still an inexperienced fighter who gets concerned and loses his focus when he starts getting smashed in the face by another huge man’s fists (or kicks). Gotta think Overeem’s strikes are gonna be the actual killing advantage, even if it ends up that a barrage of strikes leads to a sumbmission. Overeem is bulkier than I remembered, too: 263 lbs (119.3 kg) at the weigh-in to Lesnar’s maximum allowed fighter weight of 265 lbs (120.2 kg).
I am excited about this fight on its own merits, but also because it begins the process of seeing how good Overeem really is. A lot of top-teir fighters from other promotions suddently look a lot more human when they get to the UFC. (Mirko Cro Cop, Wanderlei Silva, and virtually all Japanese fighters who, with the exception of Yushin Okami, consistently get their asses kicked around the octagon… )
Confidence: $100
Wife disagrees: “What! What. What is thaaat…?!” I’m not sure if she was talking about the hulking Lesnar himself, or the alien-seeming muscle ripple he did as he stepped to the scale. But she picked the decidedly meaner-looking Lesnar to win the bout.
Nate Diaz will beat Donald Cerrone
This should be an awesome fight, and I can see it going the distance. The UFC has recently (and sensibly) decided that main-event fights should be 5 rounds instead of 3… does that apply to “co-main event” fights like this one? Hope so.
Diaz can submit people but Cerrone knows what he’s doing, both of them can brawl and both can take a beating. I think Diaz has slightly better come-back-from-getting-beat-on-and-choke-you-out skills, though. The madder he gets, the more fun the fight is to watch.
Confidence: $50
Wife agrees: “Huh, ‘Nate’… I like that name. Nate will win.”
Jon Fitch will beat Johnny Hendricks
Happy Beard Guy is good, but you know he’ll never be the champion. Still, the beard make me wantto root for him. But it’s not impossible to imagine Fitch wearing the belt. I mean, you can conceive of it. If St. Pierre like, fell out of an airplane or something. Fitch is a grinder, who I can’t remember ever knocking anybody out, so I expect a decision. Hendricks does knock people out but I have never seen him fight anyody awesome. Fitch has fought St. Pierre and BJ Penn, although he didn’t win. Still I predict he’ll ground and pound Hendricks and take a decision victory.
Confidence: $20
Wife agrees.
Vladimir Matyushenko will beat Alexander Gustafsson
This is just a gut call, as I have never seen Gustafsson fight or even heard of him. But the Janitor is a wily old (older than me!) Soviet National Wrestling Champion with tons of MMA eperience. Gustafsson will be faster I am sure, and probably more technical, but then if it gets out of the first round, which it should because Matyushenko is tough, then the old dude will start to wear on him and at some point get a dominant position leading to a ground-and-pound referee stoppage.
Confidence: $3
Wife agrees.
Nam Phan will beat Jimy Hettes
Nam Phan prepped for this fight by watching Nacho Libre, so of course he will win.
Confidence: $0.75
Wife: Yep, Nam.
Well, event starts in 3 min. so no time to predict the undercard—and you need to log into facebook to watch the prelims anyway, so fuck that. No time to proofread, posting this to the tubes as-is! ☆